Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
